Swiss exporters could benefit from billions in US tariff refunds

Swiss companies could be linked to as much as $2 billion in US tariff refunds, according to UBS economists, giving exporters a potential financial reprieve after the American tariff regime was struck down by the US Supreme Court. The estimate covers goods shipped between April 2025 and February 2026, a period when companies and their American customers paid duties under the contested system.

The prospective refunds matter across several of Switzerland's signature export industries. UBS identified precision instruments, medical devices and watches as the main categories in line for reimbursement. Coffee, machinery and electrical equipment account for much of the remaining exposure.

The cash will not automatically flow to Swiss manufacturers. Under the US customs system, the formal claim belongs to the importer of record, usually the American buyer that paid the duty at the border. UBS cautioned that exporters may therefore capture only part of the benefit, depending on their contracts and commercial arrangements with US customers.

For companies in Basel, Geneva, Neuchâtel and the Jura region, the estimate offers a possible boost to margins after months of tariff uncertainty. The size of each claim will depend on customs records, eligibility and how importers pass refunds through supply chains.

Precision instruments, medical devices and watches carry the largest potential claims. These sectors sit at the centre of Switzerland's high value export economy, linking manufacturers in the Arc Jura, Geneva, Basel and eastern Switzerland with distributors and hospitals across the United States.

UBS did not publish a product by product breakdown of the estimated $2 billion. Its assessment places the biggest potential reimbursements on shipments made during the April 2025 to February 2026 window. The rest is concentrated in coffee, machinery and electrical equipment, giving the refunds a wider reach than Switzerland's best known luxury brands.

The watch industry could attract particular attention because duties can materially affect the price of finished timepieces once they enter the US market. Medical technology companies face a different commercial structure, with US importers often serving as distributors or institutional suppliers. Precision engineering firms can also sell through established American partners that handled customs payments on their behalf.

Those relationships will shape who benefits. A Swiss supplier may have absorbed part of the tariff through lower prices, shared the cost with a distributor or passed the full charge to the buyer. The reimbursement process could reopen those calculations, especially where contracts do not specify ownership of later customs refunds.

US importers, rather than Swiss exporters, formally receive the money. That distinction will determine whether the estimated refunds reach manufacturers in Switzerland or remain with American distributors and buyers that paid the duties.

Customs refunds generally follow the party recorded as the importer of record. Swiss companies can still benefit if their sales agreements require customers to transfer recovered duties, or if the parties renegotiate prices after the court ruling. Where no such clause exists, exporters may have limited leverage once the original transaction is complete.

The process also adds administrative work. Importers will need to identify eligible entries, document the duties paid and comply with US customs procedures. Swiss companies will have to reconcile invoices, shipment records and transfer pricing arrangements across the affected period. The final amount could fall below the headline $2 billion estimate if some goods are excluded or claims cannot be substantiated.

The Supreme Court decision has therefore created an opportunity, not an automatic windfall. Finance teams and export managers will need to coordinate with US customers, customs brokers and legal advisers. The result may differ sharply between a multinational with detailed records and a smaller supplier that sold through an independent distributor.

The headline tariff could rise from 12.5% to 15%, even as the effective burden remains near 6%. UBS expects the higher rate to reflect the trade framework agreed by Switzerland and the United States in November. The lower effective figure reflects exemptions and the composition of Swiss exports, especially pharmaceuticals.

Pharmaceuticals are Switzerland's largest export to the United States and are largely exempt from the current duties, according to UBS economist Meret Muegeli. That exemption significantly reduces the average burden facing Swiss companies compared with the headline rate displayed in policy announcements.

The policy picture remains difficult for businesses to plan around. A company exporting watches or medical equipment may face a different cost structure from a pharmaceutical group, while the eventual refund process adds another variable to pricing and cash flow. US customers may also wait for clarity before committing to new orders or settling reimbursement terms.

The November framework offers a reference point, but the refund estimate comes from a tariff regime the Supreme Court struck down. Swiss exporters must therefore manage two separate timelines: recovering duties already paid and preparing for the tariff structure that applies to future shipments. UBS's expectation of a 15% headline rate gives companies a planning assumption, not a guarantee of the final customs bill.

Switzerland's economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter, but UBS says the figure overstates its underlying strength. Alessandro Bee, a UBS economist, said the result was “somewhat exaggerated and not fully reflecting reality,” while pointing to signs of a recovery.

The refund prospect arrives as companies assess whether that recovery can withstand trade costs and uncertain US policy. A payment to importers could improve cash flow in parts of the export sector, but it will not erase the effect of future duties. The commercial outcome will depend on how quickly claims are processed and how much Swiss suppliers recover through their US relationships.

UBS expects unemployment to decline in 2027, with inflation staying below 1%. Bee also sees the Swiss National Bank making its first interest rate increase around the middle of the year, although policymakers could act sooner. The SNB is due to hold its third rate decision of the year later this month, according to the report.

For Swiss manufacturers, the next stage will involve careful claims management alongside ordinary business planning. Exporters must track the refund negotiations with American customers while preparing for a possible 15% headline tariff. The court ruling may return money to the trade channel, but it does not remove the need for companies to price, contract and invest under continuing US policy uncertainty.